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Prediction for CME (2024-07-28T14:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-07-28T14:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/32282/-1
CME Note: CME visible to the SW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and directly south in STEREO A COR2. The likely source is an M1.6 flare peaking at 2024-07-28T14:22Z from AR 3768 with associated eruption seen as dimming and post-eruptive arcades in SDO 171/193/335 and GOES SUVI 284, centered around S15W30. Arrival signature is characterized by an increase in magnetic field components from 9nT to approx. 16nT, preceded by a smaller increase from 6nT to 9nT starting at 2024-07-31T10:40Z and accompanied by a sharp increase in solar wind speed from approx. 400 km/s to over 470 km/s, as well as sharp increase in solar wind density to over 10p/cc. This is possibly a combined arrival of this CME and multiple other Earth-directed CMEs.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-07-31T13:46Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-07-30T20:00Z (-18.0h, +18.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 95.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 8.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

Issued: 2024 Jul 29 1231 UTC
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 40729
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 29 Jul 2024, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST
...
Coronal mass ejections: A halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in
LASCO/C2 coronagraph imagery around 15:10 UTC on July 28. Preliminary analysis suggests a velocity of around 600 km/s and a possible arrival time at Earth late on July 30, due to the expected interaction with an earlier halo CME which left the Sun around 02:36 UTC on July 28. Another faint partial halo CME was first observed in LASCO/C2 coronagraph imagery around
02:40 UTC on July 29, most likely associated with the X1.5 flare peaking at
02:37 UTC on July 29. A related type II Radio emission was reported, starting at 02:36 UTC, with an estimated velocity of 535 km/s. This CME might arrive at the Earth starting from July 31 mixed with the previously expected CME arrivals. Further analysis for both eruptions is ongoing.

Lead Time: 31.67 hour(s)
Difference: 17.77 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Mary Aronne (M2M Office) on 2024-07-30T06:06Z

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